The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses
Colin A. Russell,1 Terry C. Jones,1,2,3 Ian G. Barr,4 Nancy J. Cox,5 Rebecca J. Garten,5 Vicky Gregory,6 Ian D. Gust,4 Alan W. Hampson,4 Alan J. Hay,6 Aeron C. Hurt,4 Jan C. de Jong,2 Anne Kelso,4 Alexander I. Klimov,5 Tsutomu Kageyama,7 Naomi Komadina,4 Alan S. Lapedes,8 Yi P. Lin,6 Ana Mosterin,1,3 Masatsugu Obuchi,7 Takato Odagiri,7 Albert D. M. E. Osterhaus,2 Guus F. Rimmelzwaan,2 Michael W. Shaw,5 Eugene Skepner,1 Klaus Stohr,9 Masato Tashiro,7 Ron A. M. Fouchier,2 Derek J. Smith1,2*
Antigenic and genetic analysis of the hemagglutinin of 13,000 human influenza A (H3N2) viruses from six continents during 2002–2007 revealed that there was continuous circulation in east and Southeast Asia (E-SE Asia) via a region-wide network of temporally overlapping epidemics and that epidemics in the temperate regions were seeded from this network each year. Seed strains generally first reached Oceania, North America, and Europe, and later South America. This evidence suggests that once A (H3N2) viruses leave E-SE Asia, they are unlikely to contribute to long-term viral evolution. If the trends observed during this period are an accurate representation of overall patterns of spread, then the antigenic characteristics of A (H3N2) viruses outside E-SE Asia may be forecast each year based on surveillance within E-SE Asia, with consequent improvements to vaccine strain selection.
1 Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
2 Department of Virology, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
3 Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain.
4 World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Melbourne, Australia.
5 WHO Collaborating Center for Influenza, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
6 WHO Collaborating Centre for Influenza, National Institute for Medical Research (NIMR), London, UK.
7 WHO Collaborating Center for Influenza, National Institute for Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan.
8 Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA.
9 Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics, Cambridge, MA, USA.
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: dsmith@zoo.cam.ac.uk
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http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/320/5874/340
GenBank EU501119 to EU502618 and EU514616 to EU514683
1499+67
not (yet) there
about 4600 H3N2 - HAs at genbank , so what's special about these
1500 from the paper ?
The problem is, we usually only have the year, not the month.
So the traveling is hard to follow
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synthesis: Search Results::
The results of this study demonstrate, that unlike human H3N2 viruses, avian H5N1 .. vaccines approved for the prevention of seasonal influenza illness. . become so widespread and continued in circulation for such a long time. The WHO Global Influenza Program Surveillance Network published a paper in the
http://www.synthesis.cc/cgi-bin/mt/mt-search.cgi?blog_id=1&tag=H5N1&limit=20HOME |
Prevention and Control of Seasonal Influenza with Vaccines::
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - View as HTMLThe global circulation of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) viruses. Science 2008;320:340--6. An original paper copy of this issue can be obtained from the
http://www.dhh.state.la.us/offices/miscdocs/docs-249/Influenza/InfluenzaPrevention2009CDC.pdfHOME |
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NEPAL/1660/2004 NEPAL EU501478
NEPAL/1670/2004 NEPAL EU501479
NEPAL/1675/2004 NEPAL EU501480
NEPAL/1678/2004 NEPAL EU501481
NEPAL/1680/2004 NEPAL EU501482
NEPAL/1702/2004 NEPAL EU501483
NEW-YORK/31/2004 USA EU501484
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NEW-YORK/55-A-PR-8-34-X-157/2004 USA EU501487
NEW-YORK/55-X-PR-8-X-157A/2004 USA EU501488
NEW-YORK/55-X-PR-8-X-157B/2004 USA EU501489
NEWCALEDONIA/6/2004 NEW-CALEDONIA EU501490
NEWCALEDONIA/12/2004 NEW-CALEDONIA EU501491
NEWCALEDONIA/18/2004 NEW-CALEDONIA EU501492
NEWCALEDONIA/19/2004 NEW-CALEDONIA EU501493
NEWCASTLE/1/2004 UNITED-KINGDOM EU501494
NICE/938/2004 FRANCE EU501495
NIIGATA/2/2004 JAPAN EU501496
NIIGATA/95/2004 JAPAN EU501497
NIIGATA/234/2004 JAPAN EU501498
NIIGATA/528/2004 JAPAN EU501499
NIIGATA/1204/2004 JAPAN EU501500
NINGBO/982/2004 CHINA EU501501
NINGBO/997/2004 CHINA EU501502
NINGBO/1005/2004 CHINA EU501503
NINGBO/1018/2004 CHINA EU501504
NINGBO/1042/2004 CHINA EU501505
NINGBO/1043/2004 CHINA EU501506
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NINGBO/1049/2004 CHINA EU501508
NINGBO/1114/2004 CHINA EU501509
NINGBO/1119/2004 CHINA EU501510
NORTH-DAKOTA/1/2004 USA EU501511
OKAYAMA/9/2004 JAPAN EU501512
OKAYAMA/52/2004 JAPAN EU501513
OKINAWA/13/2004 JAPAN EU501514
OKINAWA/41/2004 JAPAN EU501515
OKLAHOMA/8/2004 USA EU501516
OMSK/32/2004 RUSSIA EU501517
OSAKA/56/2004 JAPAN EU501518
OSAKA/60/2004 JAPAN EU501519
OTAGO/2/2004 NEW-ZEALAND EU501520
OTAGO/29/2004 NEW-ZEALAND EU501521
PERTH/1/2004 AUSTRALIA EU501522
PERTH/26/2004 AUSTRALIA EU501523
PERTH/35/2004 AUSTRALIA EU501524
PERTH/45/2004 AUSTRALIA EU501525
PERU/1296/2004 PERU EU501526
POITIERS/719/2004 FRANCE EU501527
SAGA/19/2004 JAPAN EU501528
SAITAMA/43/2004 JAPAN EU501529
SAPPORO/258/2004 JAPAN EU501530
SARABURI/1792/2004 THAILAND EU501531
SENDAI/67/2004 JAPAN EU501532
SHANTOU/1219/2004 CHINA EU501533
SHIGA/25/2004 JAPAN EU501534
SHIMANE/2/2004 JAPAN EU501535
SHIMANE/31/2004 JAPAN EU501536
SHIZUOKA/1/2004 JAPAN EU501537
SHIZUOKA/112/2004 JAPAN EU501538
SICHUAN/1017/2004 CHINA EU501539
SICHUAN/1025/2004 CHINA EU501540
SINGAPORE/1/2004 SINGAPORE EU501541
SINGAPORE/4/2004 SINGAPORE EU501542
SINGAPORE/15/2004 SINGAPORE EU501543
SINGAPORE/21/2004 SINGAPORE EU501544
SINGAPORE/36/2004 SINGAPORE EU501545
SINGAPORE/37/2004 SINGAPORE EU501546
SINGAPORE/38/2004 SINGAPORE EU501547
SINGAPORE/68/2004 SINGAPORE EU501548
SOLOMONISLANDS/1/2004 SOLOMON-ISLANDS EU501549
SOLOMONISLANDS/2/2004 SOLOMON-ISLANDS EU501550
SOUTHAUSTRALIA/8/2004 AUSTRALIA EU501551
SYDNEY/4/2004 AUSTRALIA EU501552
TAIWAN/1562/2004 TAIWAN EU501553
TAIWAN/1563/2004 TAIWAN EU501554
TAIWAN/1569/2004 TAIWAN EU501555
TENNESSEE/6/2004 USA EU501556
TEXAS/6/2004 USA EU501557
THAILAND/1419/2004 THAILAND EU501558
TIANJIN/32/2004 CHINA EU501559
TIANJIN/263/2004 CHINA EU501560
TIANJIN/273/2004 CHINA EU501561
TOKYO/1035/2004 JAPAN EU501562
TOYAMA/40/2004 JAPAN EU501563
VICTORIA/101/2004 AUSTRALIA EU501564
VICTORIA/110/2004 AUSTRALIA EU501565
VICTORIA/118/2004 AUSTRALIA EU501566
VICTORIA/125/2004 AUSTRALIA EU501567
VICTORIA/144/2004 AUSTRALIA EU501568
VICTORIA/146/2004 AUSTRALIA EU501569
VICTORIA/500/2004 AUSTRALIA EU501570
VICTORIA/505/2004 AUSTRALIA EU501571
VICTORIA/507/2004 AUSTRALIA EU501572
VICTORIA/511/2004 AUSTRALIA EU501573
VICTORIA/513/2004 AUSTRALIA EU501574
VICTORIA/520/2004 AUSTRALIA EU501575
VICTORIA/523/2004 AUSTRALIA EU501576
WAIKATO/41/2004 NEW-ZEALAND EU501577
WASHINGTON/1/2004 USA EU501578
WELLINGTON/1/2004 NEW-ZEALAND EU501579
WISCONSIN/19/2004 USA EU501580
WUHAN/68/2004 CHINA EU501581
WUHAN/101/2004 CHINA EU501582
WUHAN/269/2004 CHINA EU501583
WUHAN/271/2004 CHINA EU501584
XIAMEN/80/2004 CHINA EU501585
YAMAGUCHI/45/2004 JAPAN EU501586
YAMANASHI/1/2004 JAPAN EU501587
YAMANASHI/12/2004 JAPAN EU501588
YAMANASHI/14/2004 JAPAN EU501589
YAMANASHI/173/2004 JAPAN EU501590
YAROSLAVL/4/2004 RUSSIA EU501591
YOKOHAMA/24/2004 JAPAN EU501592
YUNNAN/713/2004 CHINA EU501593
ZHEJIANG/7/2004 CHINA EU501594
AICHI/11/2005 JAPAN EU501595
AICHI/113/2005 JAPAN EU501596
AKITA/29/2005 JAPAN EU501597
AKITA/30/2005 JAPAN EU501598
AKITA/33/2005 JAPAN EU501599
ANHUI/544/2005 CHINA EU501600
ANHUI/563/2005 CHINA EU501601
ANHUI/1179/2005 CHINA EU501602
ANHUI/1220/2005 CHINA EU501603
ANHUI/1238/2005 CHINA EU501604
ANHUI/1239/2005 CHINA EU501605
ANHUI/1247/2005 CHINA EU501606
AOMORI/1/2005 JAPAN EU501607
AOMORI/12/2005 JAPAN EU501608
BADEN-WURTTEMBERG/38/2005 GERMANY EU501609
BRAZIL/1742/2005 BRAZIL EU501610
BRISBANE/3/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501611
BRISBANE/5/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501612
BRISBANE/20/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501613
BRISBANE/25/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501614
BRISBANE/48/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501615
BRISBANE/101/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501616
BRISBANE/119/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501617
BRISBANE/200/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501618
BRISBANE/234/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501619
BUSAN/3/2005 KOREA EU501620
CALIFORNIA/20/2005 USA EU501621
CAMBODIA/7/2005 CAMBODIA EU501622
CAMBODIA/9/2005 CAMBODIA EU501623
CHEONBUK/1072/2005 KOREA EU501624
CHEONNAM/1004/2005 KOREA EU501625
CHIBA/8/2005 JAPAN EU501626
CHIBA/32/2005 JAPAN EU501627
CHOIBALSAN/2083/2005 CHINA EU501628
CHONGQING/560/2005 CHINA EU501629
CHONGQING/618/2005 CHINA EU501630
CHONGQING/628/2005 CHINA EU501631
CHONGQING/650/2005 CHINA EU501632
CHONGQING/652/2005 CHINA EU501633
CHONGQING/1096/2005 CHINA EU501634
CHONGQING/1167/2005 CHINA EU501635
CHRISTCHURCH/20/2005 NEW-ZEALAND EU501636
CHRISTCHURCH/64/2005 NEW-ZEALAND EU501637
CHU/2-524/2005 KOREA EU501638
DARWIN/1/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501639
DARWIN/5/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501640
DARWIN/7/2005 AUSTRALIA EU501641
EHIME/32/2005 JAPAN EU501642
EHIME/55/2005 JAPAN EU501643
EKATERINBURG/9/2005 RUSSIA EU501644
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FUKUOKA/4/2005 JAPAN EU501646
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GIFU/3/2005 JAPAN EU501649
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HAMAMATU/8/2005 JAPAN EU501654
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INCHEON/243/2005 KOREA EU501685
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KANAGAWA/31/2005
what's the difference between antigenic and genetic - evolution/analysis ?
I remember a recent paper about flu in Brasil,
which reports flu traveling from the northern hemisphere
to the southern hemisphere and back
this doesn't so well fit with the picture that it is seeded
newly from Asia each season.
that would be bad news, because it means that our historical
experiences with pandemics go back only 400 years.
And the argument
that something really bad such as 1918 or worse didn't happen
before in human history is less valid.
"our historical experiences with pandemics go back only 400 years."
Can it be scientificaly extracted by the archeological mass graves remains from more ancient epoques what kind of illness was exactly plaguing them?
A virus (flu) maybe can be ident. from the remains by modern science from more ancient times also?
If yes, the results of studies that isolated such virus from more ancient periods are reacheable?
Iceland would be a perfect site, but thebn again we know that they have been visited by VIkings since the 800d.
They came with Eric le Rouge in Vinland back around 960. First Nations of the Norther East Coast still have historical artifacts of this.
But no records if the Vikings infected us with some diseases.
GenBank EU501119 to EU502618 and EU514616 to EU514683
1499+67
not (yet) there
about 4600 H3N2 - HAs at genbank , so what's special about these
1500 from the paper ?
The problem is, we usually only have the year, not the month.
So the traveling is hard to follow
GenBank EU501119 to EU502618 and EU514616 to EU514683
1499+67
not (yet) there
about 4600 H3N2 - HAs at genbank , so what's special about these
1500 from the paper ?
They have been withheld.
we can best see this from reports of doctors,
describing the diseases,symptoms and spread.
However, as we know it's difficult to diagnose influenza
and PCR or blood-examining confirm/disproof the diagnosis
with 50%
But pandemics are typical and should identify flu.
Well, 1580 was a pandemic, but flu or pertussis ?
also here:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=64893
28 authors ! They must have known this since months, years.
I.e. when the other papers came out, about the Danish sequences,
about the NZ+AUS+USA - sequences
about the NZ+US sequences http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=64760
But they were not allowed to talk about it earlier in public ?!
I feel, that the groups should better cooperate,
I feel, that they should give preliminary infos before
the final papers appear.
Can a pandemic start in Africa or Europe or America or Indonesia ?
Did the 1918 pandemic also start in SE-Asia ?
Is it the Monsun rain that creates pandemics ?
Do we always have 6 months ?
Does flu in America,Europe always die ? Aren't there any polymorphisms
or reassortments which can be tracked to America and which survive several seasons ?
Birdflu apparantly is different, Qinghai-strain , Indonesian strain evolve
outside SE-Asia
not much discussion here,
is this beeing discussed on other boards,letters,conferences,papers ?
that means, that before there was travel by ship from Europe
to Eastern Asia, around 1600, there was no influenza in Europe.
The 1580-pandemic was recently suspected to have been pertussis,
not influenza.
year
contagiousness-category
number of waves
locations
-when and where started
[-serotype]
influenza before 1600:
-412 ? ? Eu
-212 ? ? Eu(Achrodina?)
+855 ? ? Persia,central Asia (Ebn-al-Atir)
1173 1 ? Eu
1200-1500 [7]
1403 ? ? F
1427
1494 3 ? Am
1510 2 ? Af,Eu
1557 1 ? Eu,Jp - Jul
1580 3 ? Eu,Af,nA - Jun Af,As
Flu Viruses Take One-way Ticket Out Of Asia, Then Travel The World
ScienceDaily (Apr. 17, 2008) — Seasonal influenza strains constantly evolve in overlapping epidemics in Asia and sweep the rest of the world each year, an international research team has found.
These findings suggest that by focusing surveillance efforts on East and Southeast Asia, researchers may be able to extend their forecast of the flu strains most likely to cause epidemics, which may in turn help experts decide which strains should go in the flu vaccine each year.
The study, by a team of researchers from Europe, Australia, Japan and the United States, appears in the 18 April issue of the journal Science.
"The flu virus is constantly mutating, so it's a major challenge for public health as well as a fascinating example of evolution in action. This study advances our knowledge of how new flu strains spread across the globe and how epidemics arise," said Katrina Kelner, Science's deputy managing editor, life sciences.
Colin Russell of the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom and his colleagues analyzed 13,000 samples of influenza A (H3N2) virus, collected across six continents from 2002 to 2007 by the World Health Organization Global Influenza Surveillance Network. This subtype of influenza is currently the major cause of flu-related illness and death in humans.
The researchers compared physical differences in a surface protein, called hemagglutinin, across the different samples. Hemagglutinin is the primary target of the immune response, and even small changes can allow the virus to evade the immune system and cause disease.
In a subset of the samples, the researchers also compared the sequences of the gene that codes for hemagglutinin.
Together, these analyses allowed the researchers to identify different strains of A (H3N2) as they arrived at new locations around the world over the five-year period. The results revealed that strains emerge in East and Southeast Asia and then about six to nine months later reach Europe and North America. Several months later still, the strains arrive in South America. Essentially, once the strains leave East and Southeast Asia they enter an evolutionary graveyard.
"The ultimate goal of our collaboration is to increase our ability to predict the evolution of influenza viruses. This study is one step along that path and in particular highlights the importance of ongoing collaborations and surveillance in East and Southeast Asia, and of expanding these collaborations in the future," said Derek Smith of the University of Cambridge, who is the corresponding author of the study.
Annual influenza epidemics are thought to result in 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and between 250,000 and 500,000 deaths every year, according to the World Health Organization.
A (H3N2) is a subtype of the influenza A virus, and it is one of the three flu viruses included -- in dead or in a weakened state -- in the flu vaccine. The others are the influenza A (H1N1) subtype and the influenza B virus. Each year, the World Health Organization decides which strains within these three categories to include in the next vaccine, based on the recent activity of strains that are currently circulation.
The authors emphasized that the flu vaccine currently works extremely well, protecting about 300 million people from the disease each year, and that people should continue to be vaccinated annually. But, from time to time, a new strain begins infecting people after the vaccine has already been produced.
For decades, researchers haven't known how influenza viruses migrate around the world. According to some of the scenarios that have been proposed, the viruses may migrate between the Northern and Southern hemispheres following the seasons, or they may have come out of the tropics where they were thought to circulate continuously, or they may have come out of China.
The Science study shows instead that each year since 2002, influenza A (H3N2) viruses have migrated out of what the authors call the "East and Southeast Asian circulation network," and from there spread around the world.
Why Asia" For reasons that aren't well-understood, flu epidemics break out during the rainy seasons in the tropics of East and Southeast Asia. On continents at higher latitudes, on the other hand, flu season simply occurs for a few months during the wintertime. Within Asia, different regions experience the rainy season at different times of year.
"Flu epidemics appear to be driven by seasonal factors such as winter, or rainy seasons. So there can be cities that are only 700 miles away from each other, such as Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur, which have epidemics six months apart. There is a lot of variability like this in East and Southeast Asia, so lots of opportunity for an epidemic in one country to seed an epidemic to another nearby country, like a baton passed by runners in a relay race," Smith said.
"Our study is an example of the tremendous synergy between influenza science and public health," he said. "The World Health Organization's Global Influenza Surveillance Network tracks the evolution of influenza viruses for the primary purpose of influenza vaccine strain selection, but this also enables basic work on evolution."
"The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses," by C.A. Russell; T.C. Jones; A, Mosterin; E. Skepner; D.J. Smith at University of Cambridge in Cambridge, UK; T.C. Jones; J.C. de Jong; A.D.M.E. Osterhaus; G.F. Rimmelzwaan; R.A.M. Fouchier; D.J. Smith at Erasmus Medical Centre in Rotterdam, Netherlands; T.C. Jones; A. Mosterin at Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona, Spain; I.G. Barr; N.J. Cox; R.J. Garten; V. Gregory; I.D. Gust; A.W. Hampson; A.J. Hay; A.C. Hurt; A. Kelso; A.I. Klimov; T. Kageyama; N. Komadina; Y.P. Lin; M. Obuchi; T. Odagiri; M.W. Shaw; M. Tashiro at World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in Melbourne, VIC, Australia; N.J. Cox; R.J. Garten; A.I. Kilmov; M.W. Shaw at Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, GA; V. Gregory; A.J. Hay; Y.P. Lin at National Institute for Medical Research in London, UK; T. Kageyama; M. Obuchi; T. Odagiri; M. Tashiro at National Institute for Infectious Diseases in Tokyo, Japan; A.S. Lapedes at Los Alamos National Laboratory in Los Alamos, NM; K. Stohr at Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics in Boston, MA.
This study was funded by the National Institutes of Health Director's Pioneer Award, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the NWO Netherlands Influenza Vaccine Research Centre, the Australian Government Department of Health and Aging, and the Medical Research Council.
Adapted from materials provided by American Association for the Advancement of Science.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/04/080416141011.htm
"our historical experiences with pandemics go back only 400 years."
Can it be scientificaly extracted by the archeological mass graves remains from more ancient epoques what kind of illness was exactly plaguing them?
A virus (flu) maybe can be ident. from the remains by modern science from more ancient times also?
If yes, the results of studies that isolated such virus from more ancient periods are reacheable?
what's the difference between antigenic and genetic - evolution/analysis ?
I remember a recent paper about flu in Brasil,
which reports flu traveling from the northern hemisphere
to the southern hemisphere and back
this doesn't so well fit with the picture that it is seeded
newly from Asia each season.
Antigenic looks at antigens.
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