Flu pandemic overdue and inevitable

Published by: jack 2009-01-08

Emerging Pandemic: Costs and Consequences of an Avian Influenza ::
Sep 19, 2005 Many believe we are long overdue for another. Planning for the Inevitable Mobilizing to Fight an Avian Flu Pandemic (VIDEO)
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?event_id=142787&fuseaction=topics.event_summary&topic_id=116811HOME

Flu pandemic overdue and inevitable

http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Flu-pandemic-overdue-and-inevitable/2007/04/30/1177788048688.html#

April 30, 2007 - 7:09PM

Australia must brace itself for an influenza which can't be prevented, a visiting US official has warned.
Eric Hargan, the US Acting Deputy Secretary of Health and Human Services, said during a speech in Sydney that the world was overdue for a flu pandemic, and Australia must take heed.
"Never before have we been as overdue but under-prepared for a recurring natural disaster as we are now for a pandemic," Mr Hargan told the conservative think tank The Sydney Institute on Monday night.
He described an outbreak as having a `popcorn effect': "a pop here, then there, then several, and soon eruptions all over".
Such an event probably could not be prevented, no nation would be spared, and any community that was relying on a national-level government to offer a life line "will be tragically wrong", he said.
The latest bird flu, known the H5N1 virus, was the biggest and worrying current threat, and its spread to Australian birds was inevitable, Mr Hargan said.
"It has spread over migratory flyways from Southeast Asia to Central Asia, Europe, and the Middle East," he said.
"Given global flyway patterns, it is probably only a matter of time before it appears in Australia and North America."
This strain was particularly problematic because it mimicked the deadly 1918 pandemic virus more closely than others, and had proven a 50 per cent death rate among the 290 people so far infected.

Re: Flu pandemic::
Given the history of influenza pandemics — which occur about every 30 years, the last in 1968, all originating in birds — the planet is overdue,
http://newsgroups.derkeiler.com/Archive/Alt/alt.support.diabetes/2005-08/msg07690.htmlHOME

"If the H5N1 strain were to develop into a human-to-human transmissible strain, no one would have immunity," said Mr Hargan, who will be meeting Australian officials to discuss the issue.
"And if it retained its terrible level of mortality, we could be facing a global catastrophe.
"If a pandemic strikes, it will come to the United States. It will come to Australia. It will come to communities all across the world."
Mr Hargan said the US was focusing on developing vaccines and monitoring disease to "quickly stomp out the spark" of a pandemic.
And while the nation was successfully stock-piling life-saving anti-viral drugs it had yet to perfect a distribution plan that would get medicine to the sick within 36 hours.
"Some people may think that our preparation is a waste and that we are being alarmist," he said.
"In reply, I can only say that these people are right - until they're wrong. And the consequences of them being wrong are greater than the consequences of us being wrong."

Exellent

"Some people may think that our preparation is a waste and that we are being alarmist," he said.
"In reply, I can only say that these people are right - until they're wrong. And the consequences of them being wrong are greater than the consequences of us being wrong."

Our friend Gsgs speaks German as a first language. I believe he uses a translator for English, hence the interesting dialogue. He and Niman have a long history of "conversation".

:D

In reference to remark the about the "popcorn effect" (and a similar analogy using boiling water that I have seen), I have a question for the scientists. About a month ago there were 24 human cases in a three week period...then nothing. What is happening? I suppose we could resort to conspiracy theories (government cover ups, etc.) but is there a scientific explanation for why this occurs. I seem to recall Barry talking about the 1918 flu popping up at same time in multiple places around the world, and 1957 flu disappearing then suddenly reappearing at the start of the school year.

PUBLICATION:::
File Format: Microsoft Word - View as HTMLGiven the history of influenza pandemics - which occur about every 30 years, the last in 1968, all originating in birds - the planet is overdue,
http://www.carolynbennett.ca/dev/downloads/2005-08-27_Toronto-Star_Deadly-flu-the-only-question-is-when.docHOME

Pandemic Influenza::
File Format: Microsoft Powerpoint - View as HTMLA human influenza pandemic, due to an influenza virus strain to which humans have little immunity, is considered inevitable & overdue
http://www.acswa.org.au/Images/user_images/res care/pandemic_influenza_presentation_october_07.pptHOME

Is the virus silently mutating, but not causing infections at present?

I was actually just talking about the "quote" part...sorry to have not been clearer on that:oops:
Cindie dont be disheartened by gsgs interpratation, the original intention was quite clear and by a man who is the senior editor of the columbia law review. gsgs in tranactional analysis is a (little lawyer)cop out thinking re arange the facts to suite their own agenda based on childhood experiences, still transfixed.or as the eminant founder of transactional analisis dr E D Berne would proboly say (mary mary quite contrary how does your garden grow! ):D i am sure what he is saying is prep now and their is no egotistical reason behind it .only compassion i see:yinyang:

I was actually just talking about the "quote" part...sorry to have not been clearer on that:oops:

[QUOTE=Jonesie;78336]Cindie : gsgs has a better understanding of numbers. Numbers are not confusing to him...Text is... He is good to go with numbers and estimates:
----------------------------
Jonesie your loyalty to gsgs is touching it is a good quality to see the best in him,everyone has the right to judge what is the truth. you are correct he is very strong at math and contributes his knoledge and opinions freely to everyone and for that i thank him:tiphat: debate is very healthy and i enjoy his posts:D look forward to seeing more. (QUOTE:i declare to you all conditioned things are of nature to decay_work out your liberation with diligence) (last wordsof the buddha)

...and had proven a 50 per cent death rate among the 290 people so far infected.

... if it retained its terrible level of mortality, we could be facing a global catastrophe.

The two sections above are what I find significant. Given a proven 50 percent CFR, he acknowledges that it could retain its "terrible level of mortality" and become a pandemic. Along with the CDC exercise last week, where they used an initial CFR of 25%, we are beginning to see high level government officials admit that things could be far worse than the "worst case" scenario in the national plan.

Affiliated Physicians October 07 Newsletter::
The World Health Organisation warned Monday against complacency in the fight against bird flu, saying another human influenza pandemic is inevitable sooner
http://www.affiliatedphysicians.net/newsletters/october2007/HOME

I too first looked to see who Eric Hagan was. He is pretty high on the food chain at HHS.

To me, it is good news to see some public acknowledge by the federal government...as I can take them to my local government to encourage them to prepare.

it's a logical thing.
Some of the statements include messages which you might agree with
but which aren't strictly correct and meant as stated.

e.g. he probably wanted to say that most countries would be affected,
not all countries.
Please, WHO estimates 1/4 to 1/3 of the WORLD's population would be infected, which covers ALL countries.

TOUCHE JONSIE!

we haven't seen such words before.

Was it a free, spontaneous speech or a prepared one,
discussed at HHS before ?

Somehow reminds me to Webster's ABC interview last year,
whose statements were never repeated by Webster ,
nor clarified/adjusted nor retracted.
Webster answers to similar questions with "no one knows"
since then. Will the same happen with Hargan now ?

Cindie : gsgs has a better understanding of numbers. Numbers are not confusing to him...Text is... He is good to go with numbers and estimates:
----------------------------
QUOTE:
10-15-2006, 07:15 AM
gsgs
Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 1,105

Re: Influenza virus receptors in the human air way.

I wouldn't call it "work out". Just expressing my feelings in numbers rather than unclear words.

Well, somehow looking at the numbers of infected humans
and which percentage of these were in clusters.

And trying to estimate the number of human-sick bird
contacts and comparing with the number of human infections.

BTW. I had a 1:1000 first for b2h but then edited that post.
__________________________________________________ _
ask experts about their pandemic probabiliy estimates !

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Most here saw Eric Hargan's speech as clear and straightforward, myself included. Words are 'clear' to us. And many words strung together to form complex thoughts and meanings are also clear to us. We don't need anyone's help to clarify a speech which is obviously unified and coherent. So we don't see a need to question Eric Hargan's credentials. We recognize his abilities, as well as Dr. Niman's.
gsgs likes to deal with numbers. He excels? in math.

Biography of Eric D. Hargan

http://www.hhs.gov/about/bios/deputysecretary.html

OK, let's see what he said:

--------------------------------

>Australia must brace itself for an influenza which can't be prevented

"an influenza" ? What a strange formulation. Could be deliberately
misleading. Seasonal influenza , H3N2,H1N1.
Very likely can't be prevented. So it's not directly incorrect
what he said. It suggests however , and most listeners probably
perceived it at this, ans he probably knew this, that a
problem with human H5N1 in Australia couldn't be prevented

>Never before have we been as overdue but under-prepared for a
>recurring natural disaster as we are now for a pandemic

uhh. This one is clearly wrong. Not clear what he means with "we",
but any reasonable interpretation makes the statement wrong.

>Such an event probably could not be prevented,

"probably" now, no "probably" above.
"Such an event" obviously refers to : pandemic

>no nation would be spared,

hard to believe with >180 nations, some of them remote islands.

>and any community that was relying on a
>national-level government to offer a life line will be tragically wrong

world-wide ?? and really "any" community ??

>its spread to Australian birds was inevitable

just birds

>mimicked the deadly 1918 pandemic virus more closely than others

lots of closer viruses, even pandemic ones

>If the H5N1 strain were to develop into a human-to-human
>transmissible strain,

"If" ? (not "when" ?)

>no one would have immunity,

unlikely with 6.5billion people around.

>If a pandemic strikes, it will come to the United States.
>It will come to Australia. It will come to communities all
>across the world.

he just _can't_ be sure about that

-----------------------------------

looks to me that he will not stand by it and
modify it later, claiming he was misinterpreted
or meant it slightly differently.
The original news story was quite clear.

The above analysis was a rather "unique" interpretation of a very straight forward media piece.

it's a logical thing.
Some of the statements include messages which you might agree with
but which aren't strictly correct and meant as stated.

e.g. he probably wanted to say that most countries would be affected,
not all countries.
Logic 101. Please list the countries that had no seasonal flu in 2006.

That IS excellent....I copied it to put on the cover of my Avian Flu folder for the hospital I work at. When people challenge my urging to get prepared and think I'm just that crazy gal that obsesses about a flu pandemic I can flip them the folder :D

so, who is this Hagan, where in the HHS-hierarchy does he stand
(assuming Leavitt is #1) and does HHS support his views ?

Or will we see a disclaimer in the next days ...