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Its almost that time of year when The Southwest starts getting active with thunderstorms stretching from Mexico up to The Canada Border. Ive been watching the Dewpoints in Arizona and they are barely at 30 degrees. For those that dont know, the dewpoints need to reach a 55 degree dewpoint for three days straight for the Monsoon to be offical. For myself the Monsoon is exciting due to thunderstorms that can last well into the night and for the last 2 years brings Severe Weather to my area, thus many new lightning photos after each storm. Im sure there are many of you that depend on the Monsoon season for Rain, and the lightning photography opportunities. I still find myself amazed at the haboobs when they occur. Hopefully I will travel to Arizona during the monsoon and get some lightning photos taken. Maybe this year, not sure yet.
My Annual drive to california is coming up this Saturday thru the following Saturday. Was hoping for an early start to the Monsoon which makes the long drive much funner and enjoyable. Im crossing my fingers.
Whats your thoughts on the Monsoon this year? Are you looking forward to this years Monsoon? Anyone going to Arizona this year specifically for lightning photography?
-gerrit
I noticed some humidity along with the heat today. Around midday the dewpoint at Ontario Airport was 55F. Some mentioned three consecutive days of 55F DP somewhere in AZ inidicating the start of monsoon season. This is the first day we've had high heat and reasonably high humidity. No rain in sight though.
In southern California there seems to be a tornado maximum, or most favored single region for tornadogenisis near 29 Palms, which is a military base in southern San Bernardino County to the east of the San Bernardino mountain range. This is very likely maximized by local geography and synoptic/mesoscale features, with the Salton Sea and low desert region directly south of the area and a ridgeline coming up from SE to NW toward the San Bernardino mountains to the west. It seems that when other conditions line up and combined with SE low level and uninhibited inflow to storms that develop in this area, tornadoes do occur. I have spoken to people who have chased this region and witnessed the tornadoes here.
The more favorable patterns for tornadic activity in the southern California deserts associated with monsoonal surges have seemed to occur when there is substantial and deep low-level moisture, characterized by 60+ degree dewpoints and some semblance of enhanced shear, usually if the region is undergoing a transition-phase from SE to SW flow aloft, as by this time copious moisture has been able to become established and if a trough grazes the region from the west veering and increasing the upper flow storms have been known to become tornadic. This is a setup similar to the one found east of the Rockies where wind shear and instability is introduced. Additionally, convergence zones/wind shift boundaries/outflows can contribute to the tornado factor. It's very possible that many of the tornadoes associated with the monsoon storms are of the "landspout" variety, caused by intense instability, lapse rates, and vertical vorticity stretching, but there is also evidence suggesting supercellular storms with attendant mesocyclones do occur as well. The tornadoes of California, whether occurring during the cold-season upper level (coldcore) lows or the warm season monsoonal flows, have been recorded to be generally weaker than their Midwestern counterparts, with the F-0 to F-1 variety dominant, and the occasional tornadoes up to F-2 strength. However, there are conflicting sources online that suggest there may have been 2 F-3 tornadoes recorded in California, depending on the site that lists the stats the same tornadoes are listed F-2s on other sources. One of them occurred in Orange County back in February 1978, and the other occurring in Riverside County on August 16, 1973. The latter would have been during either a monsoonal or tropical moisture surge. The area that it is recorded to have occurred in is in a sparsely populated region and for it to have picked up such a rating means that it must have hit something that would equate to F-3 damage. I just went back and looked at the archived upper-air charts via the Plymouth State Weather Center for 8/16/73 and the mid-upper flow does not stick out as anything that one would write home about. If anything, it's a very weak flow environment. I wonder if there is any more information about this event anywhere.
Weaker monsoon brought warmer temperatures in August: Los ::
in August. By Steve Sandoval. September 14, 2007 The North American monsoon season arrived around its usual time in Los Alamos and the southwest.
http://www.lanl.gov/news/index.php/fuseaction/nb.story/story_id/11423HOME |
Another important thing to remember is that these desert regions are very sparsely populated, with less-than-ideal road networks and a SIGNIFICANTLY fewer quantity of weather spotters than places in the Plains and Midwest have. As such and in all likelihood there may have been significantly more tornadoes that have occurred than appear in the offical record books.
I'll second that thought, Warren.
I'm VERY worried for this monsoon season. I told my wife last nite that seemingly NONE of the parameters needed for our monsoon have moved into place. It doesn't do any good for us (in Tucson) to sit with 63 deg. dews when the prevailing winds are out of the northwest...not the southeast. It kicks all the juice back down to Mexico, and we sit here and continue to back and broil.
Even the cacti around our home are very close to dying. And when a cactus dies....brother, you are in a drought. Those things are made by nature to need hardly any water at all. They're hanging by a thread.
Please pray for rain for those of us in the southwest. If we don't get any this summer....all of our mountains that are so terribly crispy dry will explode into massive forest fires at the first hit of lightning.
This is serious down here, folks.
Crazy as it may sound, the first toads of the year appeared last night on my door step --- Amphibious type (: This is usually a sign that the monsoons are starting in a few days. I have always wondered how they know? The vibrations of distant thunder? Soil temps? If they time it wrong, they die because it's too hot for them w/o rain.
Warren
I wish I could find a link to that. I am pretty sure it was one of the NWS guys from AZ that gave the talk. Something about the orographics in that area favored rotating storms or something like that.
Chris,
I guess the highest PW reading you could have would be when the air is saturated at every level for whatever the temperature profile is. The highest ones I recall seeing were associated with tropical cyclones and were about 3 inches. Here is a link to measurement in one such case http://www.fsl.noaa.gov/media/hotitems/2004/04Sep10.html, when TS Frances passed over Florida--they also used GPS to measure this. The rainfall can greatly exceed the PW because the wind can keep bringing in moist air to replace the rained-out air. 16 inches in an hour and a half is extreme, but not impossible--I think the world record hourly rainfall is about the same order.
I'm not an expert on VIL, but I know that is radar measurement of liquid water in a column, so it differs from PW, which is a measure of water vapor. Launching weather balloons in thunderstorms is not recommended (not to say it doesn't happen), because of the dangers associated with lightning and highly flammable hydrogen.
29palms anyone?
Ahh... memories! My first ever chase was on an early season storm near 29 Palms. It was a gorgeous monsoon type storm - high based, lots of lightning, delicate rain curtains and then an obvious rain shaft.
The chase didn't last long.. I decided not to attempt to cross a wash that was swiftly flowing across Adobe Road just north of CA 62. I didn't have anything even CLOSE to a proper chasemobile either... I was driving a Honda CRX at the time!
Precipitable water (PW) is how much water vapor is contained in the atmosphere from top to bottom--it is what you would see on the ground if it could all be condensed out. Larger PW values are one indicator (although not always a great indicator) of potential for convection. In Southern California I've found that if the PW is less than about 0.9" there is not much chance for mountain convection, while if it's greater than 2" it will almost certainly figure out a way to convect. It's one of the standard numbers that you'll see on balloon soundings. For example, I just looked at the soundings on the College of DuPage website (http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/analysis.raob.html) and see that San Diego has a PW of 0.70" and Miami has a PW of 2.06". So just looking at those numbers I'd say there's potential around Miami but not much hope around San Diego.
So on the maps I was showing, taken one week apart, the first image shows PW of less than 0.5" over most of the state, while a week later the PWs have increased by over 50% across the state and in the southeastern deserts things were getting quite juicy. The cool thing about the images I'm starting to produce is that unlike the balloon soundings I'll be able to produce them 8 (or maybe even 24) times a day instead of twice, and also they're higher resolution than just about any other plots of PW that you'll see--oddly enough that's because there are so many earthquakes in California!
I thought people might be interested in these images of precipitable water that I made that show the onset of last year's monsoon in California and Nevada. These are "hot-off-the-press" images that I've created for my thesis research and are precipitable water derived from GPS signal delays. They're a little bit hard to see because I had to reduce them for this forum, but the blues represent low PW, the greens medium PW and the red are high (~1.5"). I have a higher resolution animation of a week's worth of these images created every 3 hours. In the animation you can see how the moisture spreads from southeast until all of California is covered. The ones I've uploaded here are the beginning and end of the sequence (June 21 and 27 of 2006), and clearly show the change in the moisture field over a fairly short time period.
I was going to PM this to Greg, but it may be helpful to others out there heading to Southern NM or Far West Texas this Monsoon season...
I'm heading out to Chiricahua NP, White Sands (they close the dunes at 10PM :( ), or maybe even the Bisti Badlands this weekend.
Hi Greg,
Chiricahua ("Cheery Cows") is a great park... but the heart of it, with the tall rock formations, is more than a mile's hike. If you're coming in from the East (i.e., from El Paso... along NM-9 to Animas, then NM-80 to the Portal Road), you'll drive up into the trees. It's a beautiful drive, but it may be tough for lightning photography unless you're in the right place at the right time.
SE Arizona is full of wooded spots. Patagonia Mtns is one of them. So is the area around Bisbee. It opens up quite a bit around Douglas/Agua Prieta. In fact the road from Douglas up to Bisbee has a TON of Octotillo which must be beautiful when they're in bloom.
White Sands seems like an ideal lightning photography location, but convection tends to blow up early over the Sacramento Mtns ("Sacs") to the east and along the spine of the San Andres, between Las Cruces and Truth or Consequences (TorC), to the west. White Sands sits in the bottom of the Tularosa Basin, a narrow valley between these two mountain ranges. Convection usually dies down by sunset. An ideal situation occasionally happens where convection in the high elevation in Northern/Central NM spreads south during the overnight hours. Then you may have a shot.
Here's a tip-- you can stay overnight in the Dunes if you get a backcountry camping permit. I did this once to shoot under the full moon. They didn't check for camping supplies, and I was just off midnight shifts and was happy to roam the park all night behind the locked gates. This is also the only way to catch sunrise at the dunes. Only problem is, you're locked in... but there's a phone to call a ranger by the gates if you need to get out in an emergency.
A good overlook (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=32.425410,+-106.564230&ie=UTF8&ll=32.426485,-106.562061&spn=0.105484,0.21595&t=h&z=13&om=1)is just past (east of) the crest of the San Agustin Pass on US-70 east of Las Cruces... great view of all the eastern sky. Just a little downhill from the Pass is Aguirre Springs (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=32.387280,+-106.549540&ie=UTF8&ll=32.387282,-106.54953&spn=0.026383,0.039911&t=h&z=15&om=1), a BLM Rec area. You can drive in quite a ways any time of day, with excellent views of the Organ Mtns to the west and south, and the Tularosa Basin to the east, with "unspoiled" desert along the road. Eventually you'll hit a gate which leads the rest of the way to the campground, and this is locked at night. This is a perfect place to watch the sunrise, especially if there has been overnight convection, or a backdoor cold front in the Winter, as the sun will rise clear over the Tularosa Basin, and light up the Organ Mountains and whatever clouds are hovering around them, or being forced up and over them in easterly flow behind a backdoor front in the Wintertime.
monsoon â ” Infoplease.com::
The Columbia Electronic Encyclopedia, 6th ed. Copyright © 2007, Columbia University Press. Simulations of the North American Monsoon System.
http://www.infoplease.com/ce6/weather/A0833782.htmlHOME |
Niches :: More Things I Didnt Know #2::
Its called the North American monsoon season. South American monsoon seasons. 2007 Blogger Bioblitz. April 21-29. Excel Files: 1. Goulding and SBS Creek
http://sparkleberrysprings.com/v-web/b2/index.php?p=1400HOME |
Baylor Canyon Drive is a dirt road that runs from the SE end of Las Cruces (take the University Ave exit off I-25, then head east and keep going, past "A-Mountain" and onward, it eventually turns into Dripping Springs Road, then curves north and parallels the Organ Mountains. Great place for Sunsets backlighting the awesome jagged profile of the Organs. Plus, you may be able to get some lightning shots with the Organs in them from farther back on University Ave, near A-Mountain, looking east towards the Organs.
A few times a year, you'll get the "perfect setup" over the Rio Grande Valley between Las Cruces and El Paso, where you'll end up getting numerous converging outflows from daytime convection in the higher terrain to the West, North, and East colliding right over the Valley at night. The resulting convection can be long-lasting and intense.
Good views can be had from Scenic Overlooks on either side of the Transmountain Road (Loop 375 through the Franklin Mtns) on the northern edge of El Paso. (East (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=31.895500,+-106.456920&ie=UTF8&ll=31.89585,-106.456747&spn=0.026525,0.053988&t=h&z=15&om=1) and West (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=31.890240,+-106.508880&ie=UTF8&ll=31.890385,-106.508503&spn=0.053053,0.107975&t=h&z=14&om=1)) (example (http://www.vtphoto.com/index.php?content=gallery_large.php&galleryname=southwest_westtexas&start=4))
Also check out Scenic Drive on the southern edge of the Franklins (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=31.782930,+-106.480880&ie=UTF8&t=h&z=13&iwloc=addr&om=1), with a great overlook of downtown El Paso's skyline and the sea of orange lights in Cd. Juarez behind it. There's several overlooks... one in a Park on the west end of the road, another right on the Ridge Line, and others on the east side heading back down. (example 1 (http://www.vtphoto.com/index.php?content=gallery_large.php&galleryname=southwest_westtexas&start=13)) (2 (http://www.vtphoto.com/index.php?content=gallery_large.php&galleryname=southwest_westtexas&start=7)) (3 (http://www.vtphoto.com/index.php?content=gallery_large.php&galleryname=southwest_westtexas&start=13)) (4 (http://www.vtphoto.com/index.php?content=gallery_large.php&galleryname=southwest_westtexas&start=25))
Lightning photography can be tricky with the intense foreground lightning, as you may be tempted to go with a slower ISO or smaller aperture to gain longer exposures. However, as I learned the hard way, this only works for relatively close-by storms. Distant lightning will appear very dim, or not at all if you go with a small aperture or low ISO, or you'll catch the lightning, but the cloud base will not be lit up... making it look like there's lightning coming out of thin black air. Digital is excellent for this... you can quickly figure out the best compromise exposure, and then you can always delete the "blank" frames if you end up with shorter exposures.
Other good lookout locations in the area include around UTEP, overlooking I-10 (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=31.768812,-106.508557&ie=UTF8&ll=31.768812,-106.508557&spn=0.00332,0.004989&t=h&z=18&iwloc=addr&om=1) (example1 (http://www.vtphoto.com/index.php?content=gallery_large.php&galleryname=southwest_westtexas&start=1) and 2 (http://www.vtphoto.com/index.php?content=gallery_large.php&galleryname=southwest_westtexas&start=33)) and behind the Sunland Park Mall (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=31.812600,+-106.544340&ie=UTF8&ll=31.812603,-106.544337&spn=0.013275,0.019956&t=h&z=16&om=1)in west El Paso (exit 13 off I-10), also overlooking I-10 (example (http://www.vtphoto.com/index.php?content=gallery_large.php&galleryname=southwest_westtexas&start=6)). A good wide, sweeping view of the Rio Grande Valley and the Franklin Mtns, looking east, can be had from atop the Mesa west of the Valley, near Santa Teresa, NM (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=31.871120,+-106.681630&ie=UTF8&t=h&om=1&ll=31.873986,-106.669006&spn=0.053063,0.079823&z=14&iwloc=addr). Take Exit 8 on I-10 (Artcraft Rd), head west... you'll go through several interchanges, over the NM state line, then suddenly begin heading uphill with a curve to the left. Pull a U-Turn when you can towards the top (beware it's a divided highway!), and there's bound to be a pull-off where RTV'ers like to mess about in the dunes. (Example 1 (http://www.vtphoto.com/index.php?content=gallery_large.php&galleryname=southwest_newmexico&start=92)) (2 (http://www.vtphoto.com/index.php?content=gallery_large.php&galleryname=southwest_newmexico&start=46))
Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological ::
· Prof. Hu Qi Introduced Studies on North American Summer Monsoon [2007-07-31] · Prof.Jin Feifei Introduced New Way to Improve Seasonal Prediction [2007-07-25]
http://ncclcs.cma.gov.cn/Website/index.php?ChannelID=123&WCHID=22HOME |
Several photos from some of the locations I've mentioned can be found through my web page (http://www.vtphoto.com/index.php?content=portal-southwest).
Good luck, and hope this helps someone out.
-Mike
The "best" monsoon tornados seem to occur durning the shift-in/shift-out periods when the shear is best. Main season ones are mostly of the landspout variety when they occur.
The Maricopa County stats are interesting, but I think all the older reports are a bit suspect; and note that none are listed for the five years 1996-2000. Also, with all of the counties you want to separate the cold core/winter tornados from the summer tornados. Population and county size are certainly factors IMO.
Here is today's forecast for the "Southwest Monsoon" by Rocky Mountain Predictive Services, which is the fire weather forecasting branch of the federal land management agencies in Colorado, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas. This link provides text and maps.
http://www.blm.gov/colorado/rmafwx/southwestmonsoon.pdf
"According to the latest model information, flow becomes more favorable for monsoon moisture to move northward into southern sections of the RMA by July 2, 2007. This would result in an increase in lightning activity and eventual increase in moisture. We will continue to monitor the development and progression of the monsoon and update this product as needed."
Mike
It looks like S. Az might see a spike in the DPs Monday, but then more dry, hot, miserable weather immediately follows. :(
I've reached the June Madness stage - I'm sick and tired of being hot 24/7 and never want to see the #!%^$% sun again. Bring on the frigging weather already!
-Greg
Susan....
"Speaking of hilltops, is the Babat Duag overlook closed? Hope not. I think it is still open/accessible. That is a good one on the Coronado Highway."
Yes, it is still open. It's too far east for the gangs and last time I was there one of their cars was nearly hit by lightning. Great place to shoot, maybe the best around Tucson. Just go up Catalina Highway towards Mt. Lemmon and it's a few miles on the right. There are also several pull-offs along the highway to shoot from. For some reason, those foothills attract lighting, so be careful if there is any activity close-by. The parking garages around Tucson also make for good vantage points, but almost all of them are watched by cameras and sometimes you get kicked out.
Warren
You’re right, out here, lightning loves hillsides. I do shoot from vista points, although I am careful. Just to show you all how wild it gets, here are some comparisons:
On a normal day, here is a view from a scenic vista point near Scottsdale:
http://www.fountainhillsguide.com/pics/bodypics/overlook.jpg (http://www.fountainhillsguide.com/pics/bodypics/overlook.jpg)
Same vista point, my version:
http://www.lightninglady.com/photos/LLWildOne.jpg (http://www.lightninglady.com/photos/LLWildOne.jpg)
Nearby Red Mountain on a bright, sunny day:
http://www.gemland.com/images/redmtn.jpg (http://www.gemland.com/images/redmtn.jpg)
Red Mountain, night of a monsoon:
http://www.lightninglady.com/photos/StromAwaken.jpg (http://www.lightninglady.com/photos/StromAwaken.jpg)
Red Mountain bomb going off:
http://www.lightninglady.com/photos/StromWildRedMountain.jpg (http://www.lightninglady.com/photos/StromWildRedMountain.jpg)
Ironwood Forest National Monument, Central Deserts on a clear day:
http://www.sonorandesert.org/uploads/images/ifnm.jpg (http://www.sonorandesert.org/uploads/images/ifnm.jpg)
Ironwood, my way, with flooding rains (why the picture is blue) and CG:
http://www.lightninglady.com/photos/LLCallofthedesert.jpg (http://www.lightninglady.com/photos/LLCallofthedesert.jpg)
The McDowell Mountains, on a clear day:
http://www.mcdowellparkassociation.org/Mountains.JPG (http://www.mcdowellparkassociation.org/Mountains.JPG)
McDowell Mountains, same hillside, with monsoon light show and blowing sand making the red color:
http://www.lightninglady.com/photos/StromFireRidge.jpg (http://www.lightninglady.com/photos/StromFireRidge.jpg)
Superstition Mountain near Apache Junction, Arizona:
http://www.burlingtonnews.net/mountain.jpg (http://www.burlingtonnews.net/mountain.jpg)
Superstition Mountain my version:
http://www.lightninglady.com/photos/StromDutch.jpg (http://www.lightninglady.com/photos/StromDutch.jpg)
Lightning does love hillsides! I think it has to do with the backbuilding, the orographic effect, being further away geographically from urban heat islands, and just plain tall and pointy features. I observe that the foothills are storm magnets, much more than the valleys. One has to be really careful, but there are good vantage points in the hills. Babat is next, I have to get back up there. It is too good to pass up, but the weather deserves watching.
The monsoon has started here as well. We have gotten .87" of rain in the past week and we had our first hail (3/8") of the year yesterday. :D We are actually under a flash flood watch today. This is the first time I can remember this happening, but so far we have only gotten a trace. Glad to hear that the monsoon has started in the Southwest!
Chiricahua is ticklish in that the best views are some distance from the safety of your car. I'll be lugging a medium format camera system a mile or two into the hoodoo 'forest,' at night, following rattlesnake infested trails, looking to encounter a lightning storm! (Golly this sounds SO fun! ;) ) If Zeus starts throwing down CGs, I'll be running around like a headless chicken, seeking any hint of shelter.
On the other hand, the full moon promises gorgeous scenery to go with star trails, lightning, blowing clouds, etc. If there is some danger, there is also great photographic potential. Travelling alone is not my first choice, but really, how many other humans on this planet would be game for this sort of crazy 'entertainment?'
Thank you, Mike! I've printed your post and hope to make use of several of your suggestions. The back country / overnight permit at White Sands is just the ticket!
-Greg
Babat was open last time I was by. It's the first of several good overlooks along the Catalina highway. (It's only drawback is that the mountains to the west obscure the setting summer sun.) As you gain elevation, the view of the Rincon Mountains only gets better.
There are several good spots within the Eastern section of Saguaro NP.; these offer good views of the Santa Rita range to the south, with the sun setting over the Tucson mountains.
Climbing a few miles up Mount Hopkins road gets you some fantastic views of cascading mountain ranges marching of toward the setting sun. Add weather (in just the right place - that's the trick) and you've got the potential for a killer sunset shot.
Susan, can you please send me a few of those lickey :p toads?! Another week of 110+ days threatens to drive me absolutely bonkers. A good Toad Slurp might alleviate my suffering.... ;)
-Greg
Here in Albuquerque, NM, we've had strong easterly winds for the last four days. Also, from Saturday afternoon until this morning, the dewpoints have risen from the mid-teens to low 40's. Our seven day forecast now looks like monsoon season is starting with a chance of thunderstorms each day for the upcoming period.
Bill
Signs of the beginnings of some action are starting to show. Excitement building-3 month season ahead!
The best (isolated) lightning storms generally occur at the beginning and end of the monsoon cycle. This is usually the second and/or third week in July and the last week in August or the first week in September.
That's right. It seems to play out like that year after year. It's a good point to bring up too for anyone considering coming out; the monsoon comes in a burst & break pattern. During the burst period, thunderstorms at most occur every other to every three days. During the break pattern, drier air moves in. A week can go by, even in August, without decent lightning and rain chances (of course, driving where things are more active orographically helps lightning chances).
Here are some downsides of monsoon chasing: Intense heat, burst & break behavior, some creepy places. Bring patience and awareness. Actually though I see these kind of as upsides...if it was easy, everybody would be doing it and it would be boring. Monsoon chasing can be hot, hard and frustrating but I like that part, sometimes the way storms seem to thumb their noses makes the chase more appealing and every picture success even sweeter.
These are the plusses: You don't need a supercell to get spectacular lightning. Storms are high-based and lightning is easier to see. Terrain features dramatic mountains and vistas. And my favorite plus...chasing is done at night (which is cooler too). The magic hour for me is Midnight-1am. Seems that second waves from outflow or lingering pieces of flanking lines that developed into something are hanging around. The later the hour, the cleaner the air too. In the early evening, sand in the air makes burgundy wine colors:
http://www.lightninglady.com/photos/StromFireRidge.jpg
Later at night the sand is gone and the air gets rainwashed:
http://www.lightninglady.com/photos/StromHighEnergy.jpg
After 2am, air traffic is less too.
Have fun!
I think the heat is causing loopiness.
im still in illinois, no storms here:mad: but the fish are biting:D
Jim
Thanks for the info. Out of curiosity, what are the highest PW reading that can be seen? Can you get usable readings if you send a balloon up through a thunderstorm or is it only something that can be done in clear air or clouds that are relatively stable?
I've heard VIL described to me as 'vertically integrated liquid' a figure determined by a radar cross section of a storm and shown in some of the weather software available. If so, can this be converted into a figure like PW? I would assume in dense thunderstorm PW would be measured in tens of inches?
On a side note I believe I heard a report of rainfall on the order of 16 inches in an hour and a half during recent central TX storms. Is this possible? I can imagine that much in a really bad 24 hour period, but 1.5 hours?? Is this legit or just more of the exageration so often found in the media?
Chiricahua can be workable from the Massai Point-here's the landscape, isn't it fun http://images.jupiterimages.com/common/detail/29/93/23219329.jpg
Lightning can be fierce there though and it is a high pinnacle.
but look at Cochise's profile, how cool is that-visible in the park.
http://frankandjen.fulltimer.org/ChiricahuaCochise.jpg
A few of my fav spots for lightning in SE AZ are Benson, Tombstone, and the Willcox Playa. The road to Bisbee is good too. Bisbee is a funky town.
North into Safford is good too.
Very Glad to hear the Monsoon is underway finally. Looks like the SPC is on Track with AZ in the Slight risk or See Text outline everyday. Sounds awesome about the action your Getting Susan. I hope a decent push will occur soon for my area. Have yet to see a Decent thunderstorm or thunderstorms thus far since Spring started.
Happy Chasing.....
-gerrit
Eric, are you in AZ yet? Boy are you in for a treat. Today I have a unique problem-storms firing in all directions-now I just have to pick one!
Lightning sparked a fire near Independence, CA on Friday closing CA-395. My mom had to evacuate back to her primary residence in the Los Angeles area. I saw the culprit CB on the road to Tehachapi, CA for some camping. By my own barometer, the action has already begun.
its as serious as a heart attack here in SoCal - coastal black sage never showed any greens on it this year - I've lived in CA since 1968 and have never seen as much flamable timber and sage brush as now...this coming next few months will prove disasterous if we dont get the moisture out of mexico
if this weeks fires in CA and UT are any sign, it's already diminishing returns on moisture from this point - rain won't bring back all this flamable material this season
we have just broken all past season rain records for the least on record (in over 100 yrs.) so its hard to know exactly what to expect out here
Here is a link to my webpage that has a couple of the higher resolution GPS precipitable water images from last year's monsoon. You can also download the video showing the onset of the monsoon over California and Nevada.
http://pegmatite.com/research.htm
Wow, Just finished with the Tuscon Arizona forecast discussion. Here is a clip...
THE UP SHOT...CURRENT MODELS SHOW NO
MONSOON START THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
Looks like a possible late start. Hope there wrong and the monsoon comes sooner. Crossing my fingers..
-gerrit
quick edit, Maybe there talking about June, forgot that we still have over 8 days left of june. Still looks good, swoooosh.
I've been watching Warren's brave little storm for the past few hours while waiting to escape work. It's hanging together somehow, and is even spitting some pretty lightning. With a near-full moon to illuminate the scene, my first chase of the year is on! :)
Woke up today and found this Message in my Local NWS discussion,
THIS WILL ALLOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO FLOW (http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecasts/fwd/glossary/def/flow.htm) INTO UTAH WITH
NRN EDGE POSSIBLY REACHING ID/UT BORDER ON WED.
I kept out further mention which would indicate a forecast. I noticed this last year as well. They tend to Call out the Monsoon way before it has officially started or shows signs of starting.
If you come to the state to shoot the monsoon, Tucson, Wickenburg, and Flagstaff-Winslow are good staging areas. Some like the Chino Valley north of Prescott.
Will keep these cities in mind. My Cousin lives in Pheonix, hopefully these areas are all close by. Thanks...
-gerrit
Wickenburg is close to Phx.
11 years of chasing monsoon I have some things worked out for Arizona:
I favor:
July:
Tombstone/Benson and Willcox playa (the SE corner of AZ gets the best flow)
Tucson and points east along I40 to the NM state line
Chiricahua Natl Monument
South central deserts (Marana for northernmost point)
Safford and the eastern ranges
Florence and south to Tucson
For August, to the above list add:
Carefree/Cave Creek, New River, Black Canyon City
Mazatzal and Four Peaks wildnerness
Chino Valley/Verde Valley/Prescott/Sedona/Cottonwood
Wickenburg
Bradshaw range
Verde and Salt river lakes
Central Deserts (Casa Grande and remote mtn ranges)
Globe/Miami
Superior
Florence
For Sept, to the above list add:
White Tank mountains
Harquahala Valley
Gila Bend
Tonopah
Eagle Tails
I8 corridor
You can see a pattern. Monsoon spreads west as season progresses. Sept can also usher in broken up tropical stuff from the Baja which juices up the atmosphere.
Not favored for lightning photography: Flagstaff (unless there is a certain setup over the Kaibab Plateau). Flagstaff tends to get monsoon storms at noon into the afternoon, not conductive for lightning photography. Plus it is alpine so tons of trees unless you get out east to the Painted Desert or west to Ash Fork. An H over the Kaibab could change the setup allowing storms at night in these areas so watch for that. The Mogollon Rim and Payson is all alpine too, however still, because of the 2000' cliffs you can stand on there are views that will take your breath away. However the Rim is the largest Ponderosa pine forest in the world so you have to get creative.
Not favored: Any border town or area. There is too much going on down there, best to chase points north. Also, Organ Pipe Natl Mon was voted most dangerous park in America, because of the drugs, human smuggling and illegal crossings (even in summer can you imagine). No need to chase there anyway, 114,000 sq miles in AZ to play with so best stay clear of border areas. Besides, there are 20 lifetimes worth of photo opportunities points north. You won't get bored!
First "weak" towers of the season went up today over areas just south of Tucson. Looks like storms might begin as early as Monday - Wednesday.
Warren
In Colorado, the Monsoon usually begins about a week to ten days after it begins in California, Arizona and New Mexico. The average start date is between July 10th-July 20th, as Charles noted in his post. The typical end date is around August 20th-August 30th. The monsoon varies in length from year to year, sometimes just hanging around for two to three weeks and other times lingering for six to eight weeks.
What is most interesting to me about the monsoon in Colorado is that it has two facets; the mild mannered sun in the morning, rain in the afternoon pattern which is predominantly in the mountains in foothills, and then the sun in the morning, vicious HP supercells in the afternoon pattern on the plains.
Colorado, without a doubt, gets its worst weather during Monsoon season. Killer flash floods, gorilla hail, tornadoes and furious lightning storms are all significant threats. Colorado's worst weather disaster, the Big Thomspon Canyon Flood of 1976, occurred during the monsoon. Colorado's worst hailstorm, the infamouse "7-11" hailstorm, demolished roofs, windows, cars and trees from Estes Park to Colorado Springs on July 11, 1990. Colorado's deadliest tornado also occurred during the monsoon 83 years ago on August 10, 1924 near the town of Thurman where 10 people were killed in a farmhouse by a lunchtime tornado. In more recent years, significant monsoon tornadoes include the Last Chance F3 of July 21, 1993; the Dailey F3 of July 5, 2000; and the Riverside Reservoir F2 of July 21, 2000.
Our homestead has been struck by tornadoes twice during the monsoon; an F2 on July 29, 1980, and another F2 on July 21, 1993 (it occurred in the same outbreak as the Last Chance tornado).
LOL... Had marble-sized toads two nights ago, but have not yet seen the baseball-sized toads, although they do live around here. (The same toads people lick to get high). Should be some good lightning around Wednesday or Thursday onward if the eastern flow picks up as noted in local forecasts. Hopefully, no more hill tops have been closed since last year, although some recent developments and associated roads in the foothills offer new possibilities. Time to load the Fuji film.
Warren
I've noticed a general lessening of monsoon thunderstorm activity that makes it into the Los Angeles basin in recent years. I can remember some really good stuff just about every year 10-20 years ago, with one September 2nd event that had to be borderline severe.
During another event I witnessed two lightning strikes on airliners approacing LAX on the Civet profile decending through aproximately 10,000 feet. Tops were above 400. Bases appeared to be 80-100.
The last I recall seeing monsoon lightning around here was while returning from the Reno Air races by light aircraft in 2005. I'm looking forward to the more frequent return of towering cumulus over the San Gabriel and San Bernardino mountains.
As I kid spening quite a bit of time visiting family in Tucson during the 80s I saw some pretty exhilirating stuff.
Kudos to Mr. Faidly on the use of CCW when one can get one. Some states are on the wrong side of reality. Reality in how our government protects our safety an soverignty in a rather unaccountable way is becoming alarming. Do something about it so we don't have to bring up discussions of thuggery and lawlessness when it comes to chasing weather in our border states. It's time for serious messages to be sent. If not now, when?
Monsoon is kickin' in AZ, Tucson, Phoenix, Prescott, Rim Country. Lastnight Phoenix experienced yet another spectacular 2000 ft. sand wall, with lightning and heavy rain. Good stuff.
I'm in need of caffeine. These are late nights!
I'm a bit in the dark over the images and some of the numbers you mention. I assume precipitable means available in the atmosphere to fall as precipitation, wheather it reaches the ground or not?
You mention the images being snapshots taken every three hours. Is it safe to assume the red (1.5") area between the Salton Sea and the Sea of Cortez shows a thunderstorm in progress or at least clouds capable of dropping that much water on the ground below if the atmosphere were to put all of it's water on the ground? The greening of the images just indicates more water in the atmosphere and presumably higher humidities on the surface on average?
I live in the LA basin immediately southwest of that deep blue (dryest) blue blob in the Mojave Desert in the first image. I mentioned earlier in the thread, the LA Basin has received less monsoonal precipitation in recent years than what I would call normal. There was an event I remember in late July that created what I would call record or near record heat indexes in the basin. Temps during the day were in the low 100s but the humidity seemed like it had to be around 50%. Some thundershowers came through and kicked up a dust storm from east to west though most of the basin received little or no rain.
Didn't we see a talk at the chaser convention a couple years back about the Mogollon Rim area being favorable for tornadoes as well?
Not crazy at all. Are they the little white frogs or the big toads? When I make early season runs to Tucson, I always notice those little white froggies everywhere.
Must be one of those Farmer's Almanac things. Large toads are appearing in the desert up here, the big ones, about softball size. Those are definitely the kind that need water to survive.
Incidentally, humidity and possible thunderstorms might materialize this weekend.
Maricopa County, of which Phoenix metro is included, takes the cake for the rare AZ tornado. Maricopa County is made up entirely of desert or desert foothills. Yavapai County does see a good share. Yavapai Cty is closer to the Rim, and includes Prescott. Although Yavapai is not "Rim Country" (alpine), it is higher elevation than Maricopa.
http://www.tornadoproject.com/alltorns/aztorn.htm
Coconino County is in the Rim Country. The Rim is all alpine...however...in my opinion it takes the cake for orographic lift without a doubt. You can see the stuff just cooking up there all day. Then, if conditions support, the action rolls off the Rim and into the deserts at night making a long happy chase night for me. :)
I will be landing in Tucson on Monday and then heading south Tuesday into the Ramsey Canyon preserve and then Patagonia. I will keep my eyes open for some monsoon and thunderstorm chases.
Susan seems to be the one who know where to find them. Are there any best secrets about getting ready to chase them and photograph or is area just like any other storm area which thunderstorms. I hear things are usually very localized.
:::
Monsoon is kickin' in AZ, Tucson, Phoenix, Prescott, Rim Country. Lastnight Phoenix experienced yet another spectacular 2000 ft. sand wall, with lightning and heavy rain. Good stuff.
I'm in need of caffeine. These are late nights!
We've got a monsoon going on here in Texas.. ;) Man, wish the rain would stop.
Great to see a monsoon discussion!
One of the most exciting wx times of the year in the SW! I'm from southern California, the high desert region in the Antelope Valley which gets in on the action from time to time as well. Growing up, the monsoon storms were some of the best, as this is practically the time for thunderstorms in this part of the country. Not only were the storms themselves interesting for the mere convective reason but they do get rather intense with the occasional storm up to severe levels as well. Cloud to ground lightning, flash flooding, damaging microbursts, as well as the occasional hail and even tornadoes are a product of these intense summer-time storms. Gulf surges out of the Gulf of California bring dewpoints up into the 60s and 70s across the low deserts of Arizona and southern California and when combined with temperatures in the 90s to 110s makes for truly stifling heat indices!
It will be nice to have this forum going for the season and per monsoon events!
Watchin' for the first puffs of Cu over the mountains!
This will be my first year starting lightning photography, ive found a couple good spots to start at in the vail area, i do need gear though, i was thinking a regular 35mm to start with, i know there is a whole lot more to it but i will figure it out as i go.
Arizona...where the toads are bigger than the hailstones. LOL
Speaking of hilltops, is the Babat Duag overlook closed? Hope not. I think it is still open/accessible. That is a good one on the Coronado Highway.
The monsoon also usually starts here in mid July. On one hand, it brings us much needed rain which lowers the fire danger. It also brings us the best hail chances for the entire year (max= .5":( ). However, I generally don't like the monsoon. Every day is the same. Sun in the morning followed by rain in the early afternoon. I really like thunderstorms, but these are generally very weak and it usually just ruins most of the day for any outside activities. At least we won't have to worry about fires as much when it comes. :D
Monsoon has been a big dud down in Tucson so far. This is starting to look like the on-going pattern change of the last 8-10 years or so. Very little in the way of good ol' storms building to the south and moving se/e into the valleys. Monsoons here used to be an almost daily occurrence this time of year. Interesting to note how this pattern change seems to coincide with some other "chase" pattern changes I have noticed over the last 8-10 years, like the Colorado/Nebraska tornado season slowing down and the lack of tropical systems moving into the far western portions of the Gulf. Maybe just a coincidence or more likley an unrelated pattern burp.
Warren
That 4-Corners High that you mentioned has been quite the culprit early in this monsoon season. The problem is.....it ain't been where it's supposed to be...it's all over the place.
Not only is it out of place...but it's been shifting and moving around like crazy. The last couple of days it's been centered around the Az./ Utah border. I think prior to that, it was centered around the Las Vegas area. Prior to that, it was parked dead center over Az...and it's been in northern Sonora and around the Mex. state of Chihuaha. This, all in the last couple of weeks! Basically, all these positions spell NON-soon for at least us down here in southeastern Arizona.
Also, from what I can garner just from reading all the forecast discussions, etc....the models have been dismally wrong a great deal of the time too. It's gotten so bad, that at the retail business I own...customers who normally would not notice such a thing (blown forecasts) have been speaking up about it. And without prodding by me, I might add!
Yeah...I get really whiney and mentally stressed each year when the monsoon doesn't do what I want it to! I've loved our summer thunderstorm seasons since moving here from Nebraska in '61. But man....it's got me pretty frantic this year, and I think with good reason.
Maybe I can drudge up some old shaman from around here....pay him a few bucks to do his magic, get myself a good night's sleep...then wake up to the sound of rain. Yeah...that's the ticket. Joel
Looking over at the latest GFS progs after the last in a series of Pac NW troughs blows on through the Monsoon High may finally start to get going. This is most likely to occur during the first week of July, which is, climatologically speaking, the time for that to happen.
Granted, the GFS has been forecasting the ridge to build north and become established for now through the new week earlier, and in all reality the trough looks to dominate but it is believable that the deep troughiness could finally break down heading into July.
Correct me if Im wrong, But I had heard somewhere that The Monsoon will favor areas other than Arizona. I cant quote exactly what I read cause I cant remember but am interested if anyone else heard of this.
The Upper high (4 corner) and the low out in the Pacific has been keeping the northwest busy with fire dangers from Dry thunderstorms. Usually after a steady week of this action the monsoon starts, But thats not official, just something Ive noticed over the last 2 years.
Can anyone clarify "Monsoonal Moisture" when the Monsoon hasnt officially started. I have noticed several offices mentioning "Monsoonal Moisture" as the cause for heightened Precip and dewpoints here in the northwest. Only thing I can think of is that the Common 4 corner high is in place and sucking up moisture except for the fact the Moisture isnt from Mexico.
Hopefully the monsoon will start soon and bring some of you some relief, otherwise its going to be one hectic fire season.
-gerrit
First "weak" towers of the season went up today over areas just south of Tucson. Looks like storms might begin as early as Monday - Wednesday.
Warren
I saw those on the way to work today, cant wait for this to get started
You know now that you mention it I remember something like that too. I think he was referring to Yavapai County (Prescott). Yavapai County isn't technically the Rim Country, it is subalpine, but it is very close to the Rim. Yavapai seems to get hammered, and get the big stuff like large hail and well-formed storm structure. So that brings up an interesting question...is Maricopa County #1 just because the county is so darn big? I think that might have something to do with it. Things do get pretty wild around here during monsoon, but Yavapai gets gnarly too, I think even more so per square mile. Usually when people refer to the Rim Country, they're talking about the alpine regions in Apache Sitgreaves forest and Coconino County, but Yavapai is darn close that it would be impacted by orographic lift and other mountain weather.
SOCAL deserts will get their 1st taste of the monsoon season this tues and weds july 10 and 11:cool:
should be interesting to see what the openers have in store
29palms anyone?
The juice arrived in earnest today during the late afternoon in the LA basin. A few big rain drops is all though. The cool down was great after a hot bright humid day working on cars. Bright purple reddish sunset. Cloud cover was 90% or better late afternoon on. Bases appeared to be 12-15k. The change felt good. It seems it has been an especially long time, especially with dismal rain totals last year.
The best (isolated) lightning storms generally occur at the beginning and end of the monsoon cycle. This is usually the second and/or third week in July and the last week in August or the first week in September. Once the deep moisture is here, a pattern of early turnover, worked over atmosphere. or MCS debris from Sonora can cause extensive cloud cover during the peak heating hours and storms are not as lightning intensive. (More tropical). This can persist for days or weeks and ruin all PM chances in certain areas. You may need to travel to find clear areas -- or areas near the edge of activity/moisture where the sky is clear. Early storm development (by noon) will usually shut down the rest of the day for good PM lightning.
Back-door cool fronts or outflows from old MCS's can really get things going if the timing is right at sunset. Watch the upper flow from the E/SE for disturbances in circulation -- especially at H5. This seems to be a big factor in massive lightning storms and rare tornadic events. The only real tornado risk is associated with early or late monsoon storms when the upper flow turns SW before drying at the surface, or when a L or tropical system moves in from Baja, especially in late June. Otherwise, gustnadoes and intense dust devils are often mistaken for tornadoes. In addition, cloud bases are generally too high to support tornadoes. If CAPE is high enough, I am sure storm scale flow could produce a brief tornado. (I have seen funnels with some of the more intense storms and MCS's).
On June 21, 1972 a tornado reported as "1000" yards wide hit Eloy, AZ (between Phoenix and Tucson). Fifteen people were injured and 300 buildings were damaged or destroyed. On June 23, 1974 one or possibly two tornadoes struck near San Xavier Mission near Tucson at around 3:30 PM, killing one person. I've seen pictures of this tornado and it was impressive, likely an EF2 or EF3.
If anyone heads out this way, PM me and I'll help you out with locations. Most of the good (higher) vantage points have been taken over by partying gangs and thugs (like "A" Mountain here in Tucson where I shot many of my favorite shots -- it now closes before sunset). The police are afraid of these punks and you are on your own. I would suggest arming yourself if traveling alone or in the middle of the desert at night -- or just avoid certain areas. I've had some scary encounters near the border (which is out of control here). Thank God for CCW permits!
Happy shooting! (Lightning).
Warren
Activity in the Tucson area has improved over the last few days. We're still on the edge of the good stuff, but a short drive to the SE gets me great scenery and shootable storms.
I achieved first light(ning) with my 'new' Bronica 6x6 setup last night. :)
-Moo
Way too early to be looking at Tds. The typical monsoon start time is mid-July. When you start to see a persistent ridge center over the TX Panhandle, Tds can start advecting into AZ/NM and then UT/CO. It takes a week or so of persistent Td advection to build up to the official monsoon ignition point of three consecutive days of Td = 55+.
If you come to the state to shoot the monsoon, Tucson, Wickenburg, and Flagstaff-Winslow are good staging areas. Some like the Chino Valley north of Prescott.
Yea, Plenty-O'-Lightnings lately!
With the full moon coming on, the nighttime scenery will only improve. If conditions are favorable, I'm heading out to Chiricahua NP, White Sands (they close the dunes at 10PM :( ), or maybe even the Bisti Badlands this weekend.
-Greg
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